Current and Recent Academic Activities



This page contains information on my latest projects, publications and areas of interest. For more detailed information on my other interests and earlier activities, please see my CV, advisory or publications pages.



 

​Areas of General Interest:

 

       ■   Open Economy Macroeconomics;
       ■   Policy Coordination and Exchange Rate Management;
       ■   Monetary Integration, in particular Monetary and Fiscal Union in Europe;
       ■   Debt Management, Fiscal Rules and Sustainable Fiscal Regimes;
       ■   Political Economy Models and Structural Reform;
       ■   Regionalism, Federalism and Economic Governance;
       ■   Theory of Economic Policy and Institutional Design;





​Currently Active Projects:

 

1. Institutional frameworks and fiscal rules for managing the public finances of National and Sub-national Governments – with extensions to how to manage fiscal imbalances in an era of demographic change.

2. Optimal and growth maximising debt targets, and what can be done to exit the Euro-zone debt crisis (in collaboration with the European Central Bank).

3. An economic policy framework for Scotland under independence or fiscal autonomy, covering the currency question, a general framework, financial regulation, lender of last resort and financial resolution, tax policy and institutions to monitor and regulate fiscal policy (for the Scottish government).

4. Unconventional monetary policies: the role of official financing vs. outright monetary transactions in the Euro crisis (in collaboration with the Peterson Institute).

5. Has the European Central Bank always reacted to Euro-zone fiscal imbalances; and if so, how?

6. The great moderation that wasn’t: a cyclical analysis.

7. Financial market discipline in currency unions: Target2, the gold standard, regulation or a banking union?  (with the University of Ancona, Italy).





​Refereed Papers forthcoming:

1.    “The Cyclicality of Automatic and Discretionary Fiscal Policy: What Can Real Time Data Tell Us?”, Macroeconomic Dynamics (with K Bernoth and J Lewis, to appear)



2.   “Announcements as an equilibrium selection device”, Oxford Economic Papers (with N Acolla, G di Bartolomeo and P Piacquardio, to appear).
         
3.   “Currency War or Currency Peace: The Dollar and Renminbi in a World of Portfolio and Current Account Imbalances”, China Economic Policy Review.

4.   “Is There an Alternative to the Fiscal Compact for Conducting Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area?” Politik (with S E H Jensen, to appear).


Papers currently under submission:

- Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions with Varying Degrees of Commitment (with Jan Libich and Petr Stehlik)

- Growth-Maximizing Public Debt under Changing Demographics (with Nikola Bokan and S E H Jensen)

- External imbalances and fiscal fragility in the euro area (with P Alessandrini, M Fratianni and A Prosbitero)

- The Importance of Trade and Capital Imbalances in the European Debt Crisis (with J C Martinez Oliva)

- Fiscal Sustainability Using Growth Maximising Debt Targets (with Cristina Checherita and Philipp Rother)

- Does the ECB React to the State of Fiscal Policy in Europe? (with John Lewis)



​Papers published in 2012:

1.    “A General Theory of Controllability and Expectations Anchoring for Small Open Economies” Journal of International Money and Finance, 31, 397-411, 2012.



2.  “Expectations Dynamics: Policy Announcements and the Limits to Dynamic Inconsistency”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 16 (2), 2012.

3.  “How Reliable are Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances in Real Time?” Contemporary Economic Policy, 30, 75-92, 2012.

4.   “Reducing Global Imbalances: Can Fixed Exchange Rates and Current Account Limits Help?” Open Economies Review, 23, 163-92, 2012.



5.    “Fiscal Governance in the Euro-zone: Institutions vs. Rules” Journal of European Public Policy, 18, 646-664, 2012.

6.    “Alberto Alesina: The Science of Using Political Economy Concepts to Explain the Macroeconomic Landscape”, Atlantic Economic Journal, 40, 351-365, 2012 (a keynote address).



7.   “Are the New Member States Converging on the Euro-zone? A Business Cycle Analysis for Economies in Transition”, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis (OECD), 6, 49-68, 2012.

8.   “Explicit Inflation Targets and Central Bank Independence: Friends or Foes?”,   Economic Change and Restructuring, 45, 2012.

9.     “The gains from early intervention in Europe: Fiscal surveillance and fiscal planning using cash data”, European Journal of Government and Economics, 1, 44-65, 2012.



10.   “How to Ensure Fiscal Sustainability in National and Sub-National Governments” Public Finance and Management, 12 (4), 331-349, 2012.



11.   “Global Imbalances in a World of Inflexible Real Exchange Rates and Capital Controls” Global Economic Review, 41, 319-340, 2012 (with J C Martinez Oliva).



​Books in 2012:

1.   The Theory of Economic Policy in a Strategic Context: Cambridge University Press, 2012 (with N Acocella and G di Bartolomeo).



​Reports in 2012:

1.  “Fiscal sustainability using growth-maximising debt targets”, WP1472, for the European Central Bank, Frankfurt, September 2012



2.  “The Fiscal Policy Framework in the Euro Area: Lessons and Implications for a Fiscal Framework in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union”, World Bank, June 2012.



3.   “The Importance of Trade and Payments Imbalances in the European Crisis”, Working Paper 13-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, 2013



​Current Advising Activities:

- Council of Economic Advisers, Government of Scotland since 2007; reappointed 2011.



- The Scottish government’s working group (with Professors Stiglitz and Mirrlees) to design an economic policy framework and matching institutions for an autonomous or independent Scotland (2012-14).



- European Central Bank: An analysis of different fiscal sustainability regimes for use after the current crisis [since February 2011]. This followed from a project on the use of real time and cash data for fiscal policy monitoring (2009-10). Follow up projects on optimal levels of debt, and empirical estimates for the OECD and Euro area (2011-13).
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